The Prime Minister’s commitment to reinstating the 18-week maximum waiting time for planned hospital treatments before the next general election is unlikely to be met, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).
Sir Keir Starmer has identified reducing NHS waiting times as one of six key goals to achieve by 2029. His aim is for 92% of patients in England to receive treatment within 18 weeks.
However, the IFS suggests that meeting this target is improbable due to the NHS’s ongoing struggle to keep up with increasing demand. The health service has not met the 92% referral-to-treatment standard since September 2015, and many healthcare experts doubt that it will be possible to restore it within the next five years.
Data from the end of January highlights the scale of the challenge, with 6.25 million patients waiting for a total of 7.43 million planned treatments or hospital appointments.
Extended waits for surgical procedures, cancer treatments, and diagnostic tests have been a persistent issue since the 2010s as NHS performance declined. These delays have become a major concern for the public. In December, only 59% of patients on the waiting list were treated within the 18-week timeframe—well below the 92% target.
The think tank have determined that it is “highly unlikely” that the NHS can deliver the PM’s pledge simply by increasing the number of patients it treats. Instead, it would also need to reduce demand and prioritise those who have waited the longest—an extremely difficult, if not near impossible balancing act.
